SMM News: In 2018, the titanium ore market showed t […]
SMM News: In 2018, the titanium ore market showed the characteristics of high opening and low walking. The price in the first quarter was the highest in the whole year, followed by a slow decline. The year-end price was the lowest in the year. At the beginning of the first quarter, the decline in the titanium mine market at the end of 2017 was alleviated, and began to rebound slightly at the end of the first quarter, with a rebound range of 20-50 yuan/ton. After entering the second quarter, due to rapid supply growth, titanium ore prices have fallen, and the decline has continued until the end of 2018. Data show that at the end of 2018, the average price of titanium ore fell by about 150 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year. In addition, another characteristic of the 2018 titanium ore market is the small fluctuations compared to the previous two years. According to Rudolda data, in 2016, the difference between the highest price and the lowest price of mainstream titanium ore is close to 1,000 yuan / ton, about 700 yuan / ton in 2017; and about 250 yuan / ton in 2018, the relative stability of raw material prices is favorable. Healthy development of the industry. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply and demand of the titanium ore market increased in 2018, and the growth rate of the supply side was greater than that of the demand side. In 2018, the inventory of titanium ore increased significantly.
From the perspective of supply structure, it is expected that the number of imported titanium ore in 2018 will be basically the same as that in 2017, and the supply increase will mainly come from the domestic part. The growth of domestic titanium ore mainly comes from Sichuan and Xinjiang. Among them, the production in Panzhihua, Sichuan Province was reduced by environmental factors, but the degree of impact in 2018 was significantly weaker than that in 2017; the increase in titanium ore production in Xinjiang was due to the new start of the mine project in 2018. According to the preliminary statistics of Ruidao, the supply of titanium ore in 2018 is about 5% more than the demand. In the case of excess supply, the user's choice of freedom increases, and some low-quality imported titanium ore is difficult to obtain customer orders, and the market crowding effect is obvious. From the market performance at the end of 2018, some titanium mining companies have intentionally controlled imports and production.
In terms of imported titanium ore, Beth Resources will reduce the supply of titanium ore in the Chinese market in 2019; domestically, the price of vanadium-titanium ore in the Panzhihua area has fallen sharply and the local government has launched “blue guarantee” measures. Some local mines are on New Year's Day in 2019. Production cuts or production stops, companies that have stopped production are also planning to postpone production until the Spring Festival. It is foreseeable that the domestic titanium ore supply will decline in January 2019, which will help maintain the market price. In 2018, the sponge titanium market continued to maintain its good momentum in 2017. It is expected that the growth rate of domestic sponge titanium production will reach 7% or more in 2018, while the price will continue to remain relatively high while the output rises. As can be seen from the price chart, the price of titanium sponge in 2018 is on the rise channel throughout the year, and this momentum is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2019. In the first half of 2018, the price of titanium sponge rose relatively smoothly. However, after entering the third quarter, the price of titanium tetrachloride decreased due to environmental factors, which pushed the price of titanium sponge to accelerate. Unlike the price fluctuations of previous years, there was no major ups and downs in the price of titanium sponge in the second half of 2018. This was mainly due to the decrease in the production of titanium sponge due to insufficient supply of raw materials. After the price of titanium sponge rose sharply in previous years, the operating rate of sponge titanium enterprises also increased, resulting in oversupply in the market and rapid price declines. It is difficult for the entire cycle market to last for more than three months.
After the price increase in 2018, due to the limited production of titanium sponge, its price continued to run at a high level for a long time. Some people in the industry have not noticed this new situation, and still use the previous mistaken experience that this price increase will soon fall back. Sponge-titanium prices will remain high until titanium tetrachloride is available or titanium dioxide companies expand their chlorination capacity.